Weak adjustment of futures steel bar, next week may weaken first and then rebound
Market price: The transaction price of Laiwu grade 3 snails this week was 4,700 yuan/ton, and the market price dropped by 20. Although the Shandong area was in a low-production state due to steel mills’ production reduction and maintenance, the overall demand was poor. This week, the market price was adjusted steadily and fluctuated up and down. The range is relatively small. At present, the weekly price in the peripheral market is around 4650 in Xuzhou area, and the price in Hefei Maanshan Iron and Steel is around 4,920. The mainstream market in East China is steadily rising.
Steel mill inventory: According to Fubao statistics: as of 12.7, the 7 sample steel mills in Shandong had a total of about 34,400 tons of threaded stocks (2.9 last week), and a total of 2 million tons of coils (0.5 million tons last week), and a total of 36,400 Tons (36,000 tons last week). Yongfeng resumed normal production this week with an average daily production capacity of about 30,000 tons. However, the overall inventory of steel mills is low. Yongfeng’s inventory is 25,000 tons and Shiheng’s inventory is 25,000 tons. Mainly to Longgang and Jingang.
Market inventory statistics: This week, the inventory of each city level decreased slightly. Jinan market inventory was 22,000 tons, Weifang 41,000 tons, Yantai 16,000 tons, Heze 8,000 tons, Shandong prefecture-level cities inventory 184,000 tons (219,000 tons in the same period last week) Tons). Although the market inventory has declined slightly, the weak demand digestion remains unchanged, and the impact on resources in Shanxi and Shaanxi is relatively large.
Comprehensive consideration: Spot level: The market stocking intention is sluggish this year, and the merchants have little intention to operate before winter storage. It is expected that the market price will still have room for correction next week, with a range of 60-150 yuan/ton. In terms of futures, in the short term, the structure still has volatility and weak anti-market conditions. In the medium term, it will continue to maintain the tone characteristics. It is expected that after this round of rebound, there may still be a low probability. At present, pay attention to the upper pressure level in the 4355-4365 range. If there is a top break, you can look up to near 4394, which is an important conversion point for the disk. Before breaking through 4394, maintain the bearish rallies to the lower support range near 4220-4150.