More than 70 blast furnaces in 22 steel mills limit production November 25, 2021
According to news released by Tangshan on the 24th, according to weather forecasts, from November 24, Tangshan City will experience a process of moderate to severe pollution, which can reach serious pollution in a short time, reaching orange or even red warning levels. In order to have an effect on this round of pollution process and minimize the degree of pollution, the Municipal Heavy-Polluted Weather Response Headquarters has decided to start the second-level emergency response to heavy-polluted weather from 15:00 on November 24, 2021, and the release time will be notified separately.
Corresponding production control measures have also been introduced. In terms of coking enterprises, Xishan Coking and Coking have independently reduced their emissions; the coke oven load of B-level enterprises has dropped to less than 80% of the production load, the coke oven load of C-level enterprises has dropped to less than 65% of the production load, and the coke oven load of D-level enterprises has dropped to less than 65% of the production load. Within 50% of the production load, it is calculated as the delayed coking time; wet quenching operation is prohibited. Among them, Guochuang Coking delayed the coking time to 25.5 hours, and HSBC Coking delayed the coking time to 60 hours.
In terms of steel mills, 22 steel mills have limited production of over 70 blast furnaces.
On November 24, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange released the amendments to the “Administrative Measures for Risk Control of Futures Trading of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange” and related announcements to adjust the position limit standards for thermal coal futures and options. The specific content is as follows: Starting from November 25, 2021, the position limit standards for thermal coal futures 2112 and subsequent contracts will be adjusted to 2000 lots, 1000 lots, 400 lots and 200 lots respectively; the target month calculated on a unilateral basis is 2202 and The subsequent speculative limit on thermal coal option contracts will be adjusted to 2000 lots.
The relevant person in charge of the ZCE said that ZCE will closely follow the changes in the futures and spot market, improve the rules and systems in a timely manner, continue to strengthen front-line supervision, effectively prevent hidden risks, and maintain the smooth operation of the futures market.
Iron ore rose more than 6% intraday
Yesterday, the domestic commodity futures market saw a larger increase in the black series. As of the close, the main coking coal futures contract rose 12.4%, the main iron ore contract rose 5.84%, and the main contract for rebar and hot coil futures both rose more than 3%. At the close of night trading, the main contracts for coking coal rose by more than 6%, the main contracts for thermal coal and iron ore rose by more than 4%, and the main contracts for coke and rebar rose by more than 2%.
Lv Xiaohua, director of ferrous metals research at Bank of China Futures, told reporters that in recent trading days, iron ore futures prices have risen sharply due to several reasons: First, after iron ore prices have fallen sharply by 60%, current steel mills are willing to purchase and Pre-holiday reserve, we can see that the port iron ore spot transaction volume is improving; second, the market believes that the output of steel mills will rise in the future. There is a high probability that the output of the factory will rise, so the demand for ore will also increase; thirdly, in the first quarter, the shipment volume of Australia and Pakistan will experience a seasonal decline. The market expects that the supply of ore will decline in the future, and the demand may rise, so enter the market in advance. many.
Soochow Futures black researcher Zhu Shaonan believes that the logic of steel mill replenishment is also the reason for the recent increase in iron ore prices. At present, the overall iron ore inventory of steel mills is low, and the replenishment cycle is basically entered in the second half of November, which will reduce the pressure on the port’s accumulation and support the spot price of iron ore.
Regarding the rise in rebar and hot coil, Zhu Shaonan believes that on the one hand, the rise in charge prices has driven the increase in steelmaking costs. Improved demand. In addition, production restrictions have been ongoing. Although the steel mills are expected to resume production in a static state, the policy of restricting production during the heating season will still restrict crude steel production, and heavy pollution weather is another important reason affecting production. At 15:00 on the 24th Tangshan once again launched a second-level emergency response to severely polluted weather.
Looking ahead, Zhu Shaonan believes that the weak supply and demand situation of rebar and hot coil has not changed. The marginal recovery of the impact of supply constraints is relatively limited. Although the demand has improved in the short term, the demand for real estate steel has improved. It is expected that it will take some time. At present, the spot price is relatively high year-on-year, and the profit is acceptable. After the off-season, the spot has downward pressure. Therefore, the momentum of the market to continue to rise in the later period is insufficient. The seasonal demand in December weakens, and the price may still be under downward pressure.
For iron ore, the marginal improvement in short-term demand is expected to still drive prices to rebound. It is expected that the trend will continue to be stronger than that of rebar and hot coil. However, it is necessary to pay close attention to the production of molten iron. If the daily average pig iron production remains at 2.05 million tons Within this period, ore prices will continue to weaken.
Lv Xiaohua believes that the price at the end of November may be the low point of the price of steel in the next six months, and the price of iron ore will easily rise but hardly fall in the first quarter of next year.