Manufacturing demand has recovered, steel prices rebounded slightly December 2, 2021
Factors affecting steel prices
In November, 18 steel capacity replacement plans were released
In November 2021, 18 steel capacity replacement plans were released. Among them, Hebei Province announced 8 iron and steel capacity replacement plans, involving nearly 20 million tons of steel making capacity and over 21 million tons of iron making capacity.
Analyst’s point of view: From the perspective of the overall capacity replacement plan, the overall production capacity has declined, but considering that the environmental performance of new equipment will be better than that of old equipment, the environmental protection rating is expected to increase in the later period, and the proportion of environmental protection production restrictions may decrease. Therefore, it is expected that the impact on the overall steel production will be small in the later period, and the market steel supply will show a trend of first tightening and then loosening, which is good for short-term steel prices.
The manufacturing industry returned to the expansion zone in November, and the recovery of production accelerated; domestic demand needs to be boosted
On November 30, the manufacturing PMI released by the National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing was 50.1%, which was 0.9 percentage points higher than the previous month. After operating below the 50% decline line for two consecutive months, it returned to expansion. Interval. The recent continuous intensification of policies such as “guaranteing supply and stabilizing prices” has prevented the rapid price increase in a timely manner. The manufacturing industry has recovered more comprehensively, and both ends of supply and demand have recovered noticeably.
Analyst’s point of view: Due to the previous coal supply and stable price, steel prices have oversold. As downstream demand gradually recovers, short-term steel prices may be slightly boosted.
hit a new low this year, only 50,000 heavy trucks were sold in November, down 63%
According to statistics, in November, my country’s heavy truck market sold about 50,000 vehicles of various types, a 6.5% drop from the previous month and a 63% year-on-year decline. This was the lowest monthly sales level this year, and about 85,600 less than the same period last year. November was also the seventh decline in the heavy truck industry this year, and it was the seventh consecutive month of decline since May.
Analyst’s point of view: Due to the downturn in the upstream logistics and transportation market, the “golden nine silver ten” of the heavy truck market has become “copper nine iron ten”, and the demand is not optimistic. This sharp decline in sales continued until November. Decline in sales, lower willingness to produce, and weaker raw material procurement will be negative for steel prices in the medium term.
market price
Steel prices rose slightly today
7 out of 24 rebar markets rose 10-30, and 1 market fell 30, an increase of 6 yuan/ton from the previous trading day;
Among the 24 hot roll markets, 12 markets rose 10-20, and 2 markets fell 20-30, an increase of 6 yuan/ton from the previous trading day;
8 of the 23 markets for medium and heavy plates rose 10-30, and 3 markets fell 10-30, an increase of RMB 3/ton from the previous trading day.
Steel prices rose as a whole today
Today’s main thread futures rose 165, or 3.98%; hot coil main rose 153, or 3.35%; coking coal main rose 113.5, or 6.09%; coke main rose 142, or 5.35%; iron ore main rose 10 to close at 624, or 1.63 %.
Short-term steel price forecast:
Judging from the November production capacity replacement statistics of many steel mills, short-term production capacity will decrease, which will have a small impact on steel supply. However, as the equipment upgrade is completed, the efficiency will be greatly improved, thus avoiding the environmental protection department’s The frequency with which production capacity is not up to standard and production is restricted is once and for all, and the overall steel production capacity will also be guaranteed for a period of time. In addition, with the decline in raw material prices, manufacturing demand has recovered, and steel prices rebounded slightly. On the whole, short-term steel prices are expected to show highs before and lows, and a rebound will be the main test.