Analysis of the raw material market of steel November 4, 2021

 

【Imported Mine】
On the 3rd, the black iron ore futures rebounded slightly, and the final closing of the 01 iron ore was 589.5, down 0.42%, and the trading volume was 759,700 to lighten up 41,700 lots; the early trading prices of traders were still based on a single negotiation; the transaction price in Tangshan area: super special powder 400/405 yuan/ton, mixed powder 495 yuan/ton, Jinbu Ba powder 600 yuan/ton; transaction price in Shandong area: PB powder 710 yuan/ton, super special powder 415/420 yuan/ton. The spot market for imported ore is strong. As some of the short orders in the futures market left the market for profit, the market rebounded slightly. Traders followed the market and raised their quotations slightly during the session. The inquiries were acceptable, but the firm offers were few. With regard to steel mills, procurement is still relatively cautious, focusing on a small amount of on-demand procurement. The transactions were mainly concentrated in mainstream low- and medium-grade fines, especially the super-special powder mixed powder transactions were more active. Due to the weak profitability of steel mills, demand for finished products has not improved, and the demand support for iron ore is still weak. On the whole, it is expected that the iron ore market may fluctuate widely in the short term.

【Coke】
On the 3rd, the domestic coke market fell steadily, and the purchasing price of coke from a steel plant in Shandong was lowered by RMB 100/ton. Affected by weather pollution and environmental protection, coking companies in Hebei, Shanxi and other places are still limited in production, and supply increases are limited; due to the slowdown in steel plant procurement, some coking companies have a slight inventory backlog; in addition, some coking coal types have fallen, and the mentality of coking companies is slightly Obviously pessimistic, mostly actively shipping. The current mainstream quasi-level wet quenching in Shanxi is 4260-4360 yuan/ton. In terms of demand, steel mills continue to implement maintenance and production restrictions. The demand for coke is average, and coke inventories in some steel mills have rebounded slightly, and short-term purchase enthusiasm is not high; and there are still expectations of stricter production restrictions in the later period, and steel prices have fallen weakly and lowered prices. Psychology gradually became apparent. In terms of ports, the spot operation of the port was weak, some merchants were more enthusiasm for shipments, and some traders had a strong wait-and-see mood. On the whole, steel mills have increased their production restrictions, demand for coke has weakened, and supply has been relatively stable; under the influence of policies, coking coal prices may fall, and coking prices may decrease; steel mills may continue to keep prices down, and coke prices will stop in the short term Stable decline, mainly weak operation. In the later stage, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of the implementation of dual control of energy consumption in steel mills, the impact of power rationing on steel mill production, the price trend of raw coal, and the supply and demand of coke and the impact of the coke market.

【Coking Coal】
On the 3rd, the domestic coking coal market was operating weakly, and some coal types still fell slightly. Affected by the guarantee of supply, the production capacity of some coal mines has been nuclearly increased. The production of coking coal and coking coal has rebounded slightly. The arrival of coking coal resources in downstream coking enterprises and steel plants has improved. Short-term purchase enthusiasm is not high. Coal mine shipments have generally deteriorated compared with the previous period, and prices have been reduced recently. The scope has been expanded. In addition to coking coal, the prices of main coke and fat coal have also gradually fallen. Among them, the price of some low-sulfur coking coal in Linfen and Changzhi areas will be lowered by RMB 100-200/ton. After the price cut, the overall transaction is still sluggish, the market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment, and some coal mines are still expected to cut prices. Downstream coke prices fell by RMB 100/ton, and there are still expectations of decline in the later period, and the support for coking coal weakened. On the whole, the demand for coking coal will decrease in the short term, and downstream prices will fall. The coking coal market maintains a steady but weakening operation, and the bearish sentiment has increased in the later period.

【Steel Billet】
On the 3rd, the domestic market price of billet was more stable, with prices in some cities falling by RMB 50-150/ton from yesterday, and overall transactions were still weak. As of press time, Tangshan reported 5100 yuan/ton and Jiangyin reported 4750 yuan/ton. Today’s futures showed a turbulent rebound pattern. Driven by this market, the spot market was slightly boosted. However, considering that the overall bearish pattern is still apparent, the rebound momentum is still insufficient, and it is more likely to continue to maintain a cautious consolidation and wait-and-see pattern. In the short term, the market’s macro-good news has gradually increased in the past two days, coupled with the current upside down of steel companies’ costs, and relatively few billets themselves, which has made steel companies’ willingness to stay firm at the bottom a little bit. However, based on the current overall downstream procurement enthusiasm is still not high, coupled with the existence of bearish news, it is still difficult to raise the short-term increase, and the overall trend of cautious consolidation may continue to be maintained.

【Scrap Steel】
On the 3rd, the scrap market continued to perform weakly, and many steel mills continued to sharply lower their scrap purchase prices. Among them, Shagang, a mainstream steel mill in East China, reduced by 80 yuan/ton, leading many surrounding steel mills to fall by 20-120 yuan/ton; North China generally lowered it, with a decline ranging from 50-200 yuan/ton; South China and Southwestern regions many Steel mills lowered their scrap prices twice or three times in a single day, and the cumulative decline was mostly between 100-200 yuan/ton. Currently, heavy waste in the East China market is 3240-3420 yuan/ton excluding tax. Today, mainstream steel mills make up for the decline, leading a wave of price declines. At present, the profit of steel mills is low, the willingness to receive goods at low prices is strong, and the scrap market has a strong panic mentality. Suppliers have increased their shipments, and the scrap market may still fall. It is expected that the short-term scrap market will continue to be weak. For more silico-manganese, ferrosilicon, and ferrochrome market information, please continue to pay attention to the ferroalloy spot network.