Analysis of the raw material market of steel December 3, 2021
【Imported Mine】
On the 2nd, black iron ore futures fluctuated in a wide range, and the final closing of the 05 iron ore 609 fell 3.1%. The transaction volume was 914,100 and the daily Masukura 33,900 lots; the early trading prices were still based on a single negotiation; the transaction price in Tangshan area: PB Powder 680/675 yuan/ton, mixed powder 523 yuan/ton; transaction price in Shandong area: PB powder 670/680/675 yuan/ton, super special powder 435/440 yuan/ton, Yangdi powder 520 yuan/ton, Ukraine Fine 845 yuan/ton, card powder 790 yuan/ton. The spot market for imported ore is operating steadily and volatilely. Today, the market fluctuates widely, the main contract has been switched to the 05 contract, and the market has changed a lot. Traders are more cautious in shipments, but the spot still has the willingness to hold up the price. In terms of steel mills, procurement is still relatively cautious, focusing on on-demand procurement. With the gradual recovery of steel mill profits, the expected resumption of production has increased. Spot market prices did not follow the sharp drop in the disk. However, environmental protection and production restrictions in Tangshan continue to be tightened, and market demand is limited. On the whole, it is expected that the iron ore market may operate in a narrow range in the short term.
【Coke】
On the 2nd, the domestic coke market was mainly operating stably for the time being, and the mainstream quasi-first-level wet quenching in Shanxi was reported at RMB 2460-2560/ton. On the supply side, coke companies have little room for profitability after eight rounds of coke price drops; some coal types in Inner Mongolia have recovered, coke prices have been supported, and some chemical coke in the northwestern region have risen, which has certain support for metallurgical coke prices. At present, the start-up of coke enterprises remains low, and they are mainly engaged in shipments, and inventory has declined. On the demand side, due to the impact of environmental protection, steel mills still have strict production restrictions and frequent maintenance. It is difficult for the demand for coke to increase significantly. Considering the recovery of steel mill profits, steel mills will temporarily depress coke prices. In terms of ports, inventory increased slightly, coke prices were temporarily stable, and traders mostly stayed on the sidelines. On the whole, the inventory pressure of coke companies has eased, and some coke companies are still in stock, steel mills are still purchasing on demand, and supply and demand are relatively loose; coke companies are mainly price, and coke prices are still stable in the short term. Continue to pay attention to the changes in coke inventories of coking enterprises and steel mills and the trend of coking coal prices.
【Coking Coal】
On the 2nd, the domestic coking coal market weakened and the prices of some coal types were adjusted. Downstream demand has improved, coal mine shipments have been relatively smooth, quotations are mostly stable, and some early-stage oversold coal types are showing signs of bottoming out. At present, the inventories of some coal mines are still relatively high, and some coal types are still at a temporary high level, and expectations are still lowered. The stocks of raw materials in downstream steel mills and coking plants have mostly fallen to low levels. Some companies have demand for winter storage, and their demand for raw coal has increased, and there is a demand for purchases. As for Mongolian coal, the daily customs clearance vehicles at the port have dropped again recently, and the import volume has decreased. Traders are still expected to raise their quotations. The mainstream quotation of Mongolian 5 clean coal is about 1,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from the previous. On the whole, the supply of coking coal is still relatively loose, and the demand has recovered slightly. The short-term coking coal market still maintains a weak operation, and some oversold coal types may be called back.
【Steel Billet】
On the 2nd, domestic billet market prices continued to stabilize, and the transaction performance was average. As of press time, Tangshan reported 4290 yuan/ton and Jiangyin reported 4380 yuan/ton. Today, the overall downstream transactions performed poorly, with limited purchases of steel billets, and the overall trading atmosphere was more wait-and-see. In addition, the trend of falling back on the futures market in late trading also relatively restricted the market trading atmosphere. However, the news of environmental protection in the dominant city, Tangshan, was released again, that is, individual blast furnaces in steel mills started to cook from this evening. This news may bring favorable support to the market in terms of sentiment and supply. Once the night market is matched, then the market price may show a firm upward trend tomorrow.
【Scrap Steel】
On the 2nd, the scrap market performed steadily and strongly, and some steel mills raised their scrap purchase prices. Among them, steel mills in southern China and Jiangsu will increase by 30-50 yuan/ton; some steel mills in North China, Northeast and Shandong regions will increase by 30-100 yuan/ton. At present, heavy waste in the East China market does not include tax at 2740-2890 yuan/ton. Recently, the scrap steel market has tight resources. Some scrap steel suppliers are not motivated to ship goods. The delivery situation of steel mills is generally average. Some steel mills have upward adjustments to attract supply. At present, the downstream demand is weak, the transaction of finished products is average, and the willingness of the finished products to continue to rise is not high, which restrains the rising space of scrap steel. It is expected that the short-term scrap steel market will adjust and operate steadily.